Why AI Cannot Predict Your Chance of Winning a Building Case
AI says you have an 82% chance of winning your legal case?
Really!?
Believe it or not. This is the type of ‘instructions’ I am starting to see!
If it wasn’t true and becoming MORE common I would think it’s funny
But it ain’t funny and it is true!
I’m starting to see AI platforms asking people to upload a few documents, answer some questions and then produce a percentage chance of success.
“You have an 82% chance of winning.”
Really?
Winning what? What case? What pleading? What defence?
Like what the….?
How could it possibly know?
I mean no one knows and no one certainly knows at that stage.
No competent lawyer would ever give a client a percentage chance of success at the beginning of a building case.
Not because lawyers don’t understand the law.
Because they understand litigation.
At the start of a dispute, nobody knows what documents will later emerge.
Nobody knows what the other side’s evidence will be.
Nobody knows what expert opinions will ultimately be obtained. Or further responsive reports will emerge.
Nobody knows how witnesses will perform under cross-examination.
Nobody knows whether new facts will completely change the case.
And nobody knows how a particular judge will assess the evidence.
Yet AI tells me I have an 82% chance…really!?
Not 80% not 50% but 82%.
Really?!
Every experienced litigator has had cases transformed by one email, one expert report, one admission or one witness.
So how can an AI platform, after reading a handful of documents and asking a few questions, confidently tell someone they have a 73%, 81% or 92% chance of winning?
It can’t.
The number gives an appearance of scientific precision, but where is the science?
The truth is if you turn up to a lawyer with your AI prospects of success - what do you really think they will do with that!?
AI has enormous potential to help lawyers and eventually I think help litigants in legal practice. However, prospects of success, at the start of a matter and telling prospective clients their chances of winning a case…you may as well say to your lawyer:
“hey, I don’t know how legal works, you are going to need a bit longer in the first consult…”
If an experienced litigation lawyer can’t responsibly put a percentage on the outcome of a case at its commencement…what do presenting these numbers say to anyone?
This article is a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
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